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中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展和未来展望
来源：中国论文下载中心 作者：唐彬 郭凯

[摘要] 世界各大洲的区域经济一体化进程都在加速发展，中国－东盟自由贸易区的建设对我国意义重大。经过三个阶段的建设和两个次区域合作的建设，中国和东盟成功的组建了自由贸易区，并且经贸往来取得了长足的发展，并保持高速增长。虽然在自由贸易区建设中，存在一些不利因素的影响，仍有足够的理由对东盟—中国自贸区的未来充满信心。
[关键词] 中国－东盟自由贸易区 次区域合作 自由贸易区前景

一、中国－东盟自由贸易区的重要性和可能性
1.中国－东盟自由贸易区的重要性
中国－东盟自由贸易区的建设对我国意义重大：
(1)从地理上看，东南亚对我国的经济和国防安全至关重要
东南亚地处太平洋西南的黄金水道，内有连接欧、澳的海上交通咽喉——马六甲海峡，堪称我国经济安全的生命线。该区域蕴含着丰富的有色金属和海洋生物，21世纪公认的11个新兴市场国家和地区中，有8个在亚太。
(2)从扩大我国的国际地位看，东南亚是我国“和平崛起”的重要区域
美、日、欧盟至今未解除对华军售禁令和不承认我国的市场经济地位就足以说明他们对我国的“和平崛起”仍保持打压心态。北面“上海合作组织”的功能基本上是政治和安全领域，经贸合作规模不大；而东面的日本和西面的印度，历史积怨难以在短期内消除；我国“全天候”的合作伙伴巴基斯坦位于南亚中枢，但咯喇昆仑高原的阻隔和恶劣的气候使其地缘优势的发挥有限；我国真正可以施加影响的地区是近邻的东盟10国。
(3)对开发我国西部意义重大
和东盟结成自由贸易区，与东盟接壤的广西、云南等西部欠发达的地区就从边区变成了贸易的重要枢纽。这对开发西部，实现东部的产业向西部转移和平衡发展具有重要意义。
(4)加大制造业对东盟投资的力度以加速国内产业结构的升级换代和规避贸易摩擦
一些劳动密集型行业在国内市场上已经饱和，属“边际产业”。但把这些过剩的生产能力转移到在国际分工中处于更低级的东盟体的国家，则可加速国内产业结构的升级换代，并可以规避贸易摩擦。
(5)为了团结一致，共同进步，避免被进一步边缘化
目前世界竞争的重点已经转移到高技术含量的服务业，这使得发展中国家有进一步被发达国家拉开差距的危险。中国和东盟应该团结一致，共同迎接挑战。
对东盟而言，建立中国－东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）也是必要的：
1)东盟需要中国作为其经济增长的发动机
东盟内部市场狭小，因此东盟成员国大都推行出口导向战略，中国是东亚最具潜力的市场。不断扩大对中国的出口以拉动经济增长显然可以“近水楼台先得月”。
2)对于东盟而言，建立CAFTA可以弥补东盟的脆弱性
从欧盟和北美区域经济一体化的成功范例中可以看出，区域经济内部客观上需要有核心力量。而1997年东南亚的金融危机时中国的表现表明，中国是一个负责任的大国，一定程度上可以充当核心国的角色。
2.中国－东盟自由贸易区的促进因素
以下因素推动了中国－东盟自由贸易区的建设：
(1)我国提出“与邻为善，以邻为伴”的方针，保持了对东盟的贸易逆差，在南沙问题中谨慎妥善处理，在1997年的亚洲金融危机中，坚持人民币不贬值，赢得了东盟国家的信任。
(2)我国不但与东盟具有地缘上的亲和力，而且全世界约3000万华侨中约70％以上居留在东盟各国，其经济实力也约占全球华侨经济资源的70％以上。他们是一直促进贸易区合作的重要力量。
(3)1993年l月1日东盟自由贸易区的启动为中国与东盟自由贸易区的建立打下了良好的基础。欧盟和北美自由贸易区的成功无疑为中国－东盟自由贸易区提供了经验与参照。
(4)我国与东盟在资源禀赋、产品构成、产业结构和工农业品等方面各具特色，互补性很强。
二、中国－东盟自由贸易区建设现状
中国和东盟自由贸易区的建设可分为三个阶段：
第一阶段（1991年～1996年），在这一阶段，重点是中国与东盟国家国的双边经贸合作不断有新的发展。
第二阶段（1997年～2000年），在这一阶段，中国与东盟增进合作，共同应对亚洲金融危机。1997年中国与东盟确定了建立面向21世纪的睦邻互信伙伴关系，发表了《联合声明》。随后两年间，中国分别与东盟十国签署了关于未来双边合作框架的《联合声明》，确定了在睦邻合作、互信互利的基础上建立长期稳定的关系。上述这十一个重要的《联合声明》都将相互间的经贸投资合作关系作为重要关系。至2000年，中国与东盟十国均签订了《鼓励和相互保护投资协定》。2000年在第四次中国－东盟领导人会议上，中国提出组建中国－东盟自由贸易区的建议。
第三阶段（2001年～2007年），在这一阶段，中国与东盟达成了组建中国－东盟自由贸易区的共识，之后签订了有关协议，并于2005年7月开始自贸区进入实质性运作时期。在这一阶段，中国与东盟间政治、经济合作良性互动，经贸合作在这一阶段一年一大步。2002年，中国与东盟签署了《南海各方行为宣言》；2002年11月，中国与东盟领导人共同签署了《全面经济合作框架协议》，决定在2010年建成中国—东盟自贸区;2003年，中国率先加入了《东南亚友好合作条约》，与东盟率先建立了战略伙伴关系，双方还签署了《面向和平与繁荣的战略伙伴关系联合宣言》，2004年，中国与东盟进一步签署了落实这一战略伙伴关系的《行动计划》;中国与东盟关于自由贸易协定（FTA)的谈判正式启动于2003年，实质性谈判从《早期收获》计划（Early Harvest Program)开始，2003年10月，中国与泰国“早期收获”计划开始实施，2004年1月1日，“早期收获”计划广泛实施;2004年9月，双方就货物贸易内容达成原则性协议，2004年在第八次中国—东盟领导人会议上，双方签署了《中国—东盟自由贸易区货物贸易协议》和《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议争端解决机制协议》这两份自贸区重要文件，《争端解决机制协议》为日后可能的贸易争端的解决提供了法律依据；2005年，中国－东盟自由贸易区进入实质性操作阶段，从当年7月20日开始，双方全面启动降税进程，首批7445种商品的关税降至20％左右，中国对东盟6个老成员国平均关税降到了8.1％，甚至比最惠国平均税率还低1.8个百分点;按照自贸区建设计划，到2010年，中国与东盟六个老成员国间绝大多数产品关税为零，到2015年，中国与东盟四个新成员国间绝大多数产品关税为零，一个由十一个国家组建的统一市场正在打造，并将改写世界经济版图;在《中国—东盟自由贸易区货物贸易协议》的基础上，通过双方的共同努力，历经多轮磋商，最终就服务贸易协议的内容达成一致，2007年1月14日，签署了中国—东盟自贸区《服务贸易协议》，它的签署为如期全面建成自贸区奠定了更为坚实的基础。
在中国与东南亚国家经贸合作不断加强的背景下，还涌现了中越两国共同提出的“两廊一圈”和由亚洲开发银行提出并支持的“湄公河次区域经济合作”两个次区域经济合作区域，他们是中国－东盟自由贸易区的有机组成部分，再加上居中的南宁—新加坡经济走廊，即构成“M”的经济合作战略，或“一轴两翼”。
此外，双方关于投资协议的谈判仍在进行中。在已有的货物贸易协议和服务贸易协议的基础上，中国—东盟双方再就关于双边投资的协议达成一致，再加上此前作为游戏规则的《争端解决机制协议》，就构成一个严格意义上的自贸区的制度框架。
翻译:
Development of Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area and future look into the distance
World every continent regional economies integration course develops [abstract] in acceleration , pair of construction our countries of Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area significance is significant. Process three stages construction and two sub-regional cooperation construction,China and ASEAN have formed free-trade zone successfully , economy and trade has contacted with each other and having got rapid progress , have kept and high speed increasing by. Though building middle in free-trade zone, existence a few unfavourable factors effect, still has sufficient reasons to be full of confidence to the ASEAN Chinese future from trade area. [Keyword] Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area sub-regional cooperation free-trade zone prospect one, significance and possibility of Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area 1. Pair of construction our countries of significance of Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area significance is significant: Judging from geographical feature (1), Southeast Asia is located in the Pacific Ocean southwest gold water channel to economy of our country and safe all-important national defence Southeast Asia , the inner navigation pharynx and laryns Strait of Malacca having Europe , bay linking up , can be rated as our country economic security lifeline. Be area's turn to be containing rich non-ferrous metal and marine life, in the 21 centuries universally accepted 11 emerging market countries and regions, have 8 on Asia-Pacific. (2) as for expanding international standing of our country, Southeast Asia important area being that our country "peace rises abruptly " American-Japan, European Union has not relieved the marketplace economic status selling prohibition and nonrecognition our country to Hua Jun being enough to explain that they "rise abruptly to peace" of our country still keeping dozen of pressure psychology right away so far. "Shanghai Cooperation Organization's" function is politics and safe field mainly in the north part , economy and trade cooperation scale is not big; But east Japan and the western part India, the history accumulated rancour is difficult to eliminate in a short time; "All-weather" cooperation of our country buddy Pakistan is located in South Asia centre , pheasant's cry La Kunlun Mountains highland cutting off and very bad climate make whose predominant field predestined relationship bringing into play limited but; That our country can exert the area affecting really is ASEAN of the close neighbour 10 countries. Significant sum ASEAN forms (3) pair of the significance developing our country western part free-trade zone , the important key position owing developed area in the western part have become trade from border area right away such as Guangxi , Yunnan bordering on ASEAN. This has importance to the estate developing western part , realizing east's to western part metastasis and balanced development. Already, (4) updating and upgrading enlarging by the dynamics that manufacturing industry invests in to ASEAN to accelerate in the homeland industrial set-ups and escapism trade friction a little labor-intensive industry saturated , belong to "bound estate " on home market. And but excessive efficiency transfers these to the country who is in the more vulgar body of ASEAN in international division of labor, updating and upgrading may accelerate in the homeland industrial set-ups, can evade trade friction. Progress (5) commonly for the monolithic solidarity, avoid being gone a step further border-rization priority that the world competes for at present already transfer to high technology contents service industry , the danger that this feasible developing country has to be increased the distance between a gap further by the developed country. China and ASEAN ought to be united as one and be concentrating efforts on , meet the challenge commonly. To ASEAN Er Yan , building-up China-, ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) is also necessary: 1) ASEAN inside of engine ASEAN who requires that China is whose economic growth the marketplace is narrow and limited , the member country of ASEAN carries out outlet guiding strategy therefore mostly , China is that East Asia has most the potential marketplace. The export expanding unceasingly to Chinese evidently can be "a water-front pavilion gets the moonlight first" with fuel economic growth. 2) can make up ASEAN's vulnerability from European Union and it can be seen in successful North America regional economies integration example to ASEAN Er Yan , building-up CAFTA, need to have a force at the core in the inside of regional economies on the objective. But Chinese behaviour indicates time the Southeast Asia financial crisis in 1997, China is a big responsible nation , can act as the national role of core on certain degree. 2. Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area's boost factor the following factor having driven construction of Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area: (1) our country put forward "has built a good relationship with our neighbors , the guiding principle building a good partnership with our neighbors ", has kept the trade deficit to ASEAN, cautious in south sand problem appropriate treatment, insist that RMB does not devalue in Asian financial crisis in 1997,trust having won ASEAN countries. Not only (2) our countries have upper field predestined relationship affinity with ASEAN , but also the whole world about 30 million overseas Chinese China-Jordan resides in above 70% in every country of ASEAN,whose economic strength also roughly accounts for more than 70% of the whole world overseas Chinese economy resource. They are the important strengths always boosting a trade zone working together. Starting of (3) l month in 1993 ASEAN Free Trade Area on 1st is that China and building-up of the ASEAN Free Trade Area have laid down fine basis. European Union and North American Free Trade Area's success are that Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area has provided experience and consulted beyond doubt. (4) our countries and ASEAN have respectively in the field of resource gift , product composition , industrial set-ups and industry and agriculture product etc. characteristic, complement is very strong. Two, Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area China who builds current situation and construction of the ASEAN Free Trade Area may be three stages mark: The first stages (1996 in 1991 ~), are in this one stage , priority is China and the national doubling piece of ASEAN countries economy and trade cooperation has new development unceasingly. Second stages (Y2K in 1997 ~), are in this one stage , China and ASEAN enhance a cooperation , answer Asian financial crisis commonly. In 1997 China and ASEAN have ascertained building-up having announced facing 21 centuries partnership of good-neighborliness and mutual trust, "joint statement". Subsequently during the two years, China ten countries have signed the "joint statement" about future bilateral cooperation frame respectively with ASEAN , have ascertained relation building long-term stability on the mutually beneficial basis working together , believing mutually in good-neighbourliness. This important eleven "joint statement" all looks on mutual economy and trade investment cooperation relation as important relation as said or narrated above. Till Y2K, China "invests in an agreement with without exception have concluded and signed encouragement and mutual" ASEAN ten countries protection. Go ahead in fourth time of leader of Chinese- ASEAN convention Y2K, China submits the suggestion forming Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area. Third stages (2007 in 2001 ~), are in this one stage , China and east Alliance has reached the common view forming Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area , has concluded and signed the period beginning to enter substantiality operation from trade area in connection with the agreement, and on July , 2005 afterwards. The benign cooperating with ASEAN room political economy in this one stage , China, is interactive , the economy and trade cooperation once strides in this one stage for 1 year. In 2002, China and ASEAN have signed "Nanhai Sea Gefang behavior declaration "; China and the leader of ASEAN have signed "the all-round economic cooperation frame agreement " commonly in November , 2002,area deciding to establish Chinese ASEAN on 2010 from trade; China has taken the lead in having put in "Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in South-east Asia " in 2003, ASEAN has taken the lead in having built strategic partnership and , both sides has signed , China and ASEAN have signed further in 2004, "Programme of Action " carrying out this one strategic partnership; China and ASEAN negotiation about free trade agreement (FTA) gets it in gear formally on 2003 , substantiality negotiation begins from plan (Early Harvest Program) "early phase harvests " , in October , 2003, China and the Thailand "early phase gains " plan begin to be put into effect , "the early phase gains " plan is put into effect broadly on January 1 , 2004,; Both sides reaches the principle agreement with regard to goods trade content in September , 2004, go ahead in eighth time of Chinese leader convention of ASEAN in 2004, both sides has signed the basis this two "resolving the mechanism agreement from important trade area document , dispute" for in the future possible trade dispute solving has provided law; In 2005, Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area enters a substantiality handling a stage , begins from July 20 that very year, all-round starting of both sides has conquered the tax course , first batch of 7445 kinds commodities customs duties has fallen to 20% or so , China has been lowered to 8.1% to average customs duties of ASEAN 6 old people member state , even more average than most-favoured-nation tax rate has been 1.8 percentage point lower than; And according to that self trade area building a plan , arriving at 2010, Chinese is zero , arrives at 2015 with ASEAN six old member state room most products customs duties, China is zero with ASEAN four newcomer countries room most product customs duties , a single market being formed by eleven countries makes in course of, will rewrite world economy territory; On "Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area goods trade agreement " basis, have consulted with by the fact that the both sides making joint efforts, gets through many wheels , the content serving the trade agreement ultimately right away has been reached coinciding , has signed "service trade agreement " Chinese ASEAN from trade area on January 14 , 2007,its signature is that area has establish the basis being more solid establish self trade as scheduled all round. Two time of regional economic cooperation area middle "two one corridor circles " that both countries brings forward increasingly commonly and "time of Mekong regional economic cooperation " and holding out to be suggested that by Asian Development Bank has sprung up , they have been organic ingredients of Chinese- ASEAN Free Trade Area , has been to compose "M" economic cooperation strategy, or "one scrolls of both wings " plus Nanning Singapore economy between two parties corridor under background reinforcing unceasingly with Southeast Asian Nation economy and trade cooperation in Chinese. Besides, both sides relates to negotiation with investment of agreement still agoing. On already some goods trade agreements and service trade agreement basis, the agreement that ASEAN both sides invests in again right away about the doubling piece reaches China plus "the agreement resolving mechanism here in the front as game regulation dispute" coinciding,frame composing upper a strict significance system from trade area right away. All above result is provided from Golden Bridge Translator, you also can choose the one-to-one manpower paying to translate service , gain more accurate information content.

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